Insights into Seed Spice Cultivation in Uttarakhand: Evidence from AGR, CAGR, and Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

Seed spices are high-value horticultural crops that contribute significantly to agricultural diversification, farm income, and nutritional security. Understanding their production dynamics is essential for designing effective crop-development strategies. This study analysed the temporal dynamics of coriander (Coriandrum sativum L.) and fenugreek (Trigonella foenum-graecum L.) cultivation across the 13 districts of Uttarakhand, India, using district-wise secondary data for 2016–17 to 2020–21. Descriptive statistics were used to assess spatial variation in cultivated area, production, and productivity, whereas Annual Growth Rate (AGR) and Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) analyses were used to evaluate short- and long-term growth trends. Panel data regression models were also estimated to identify the determinants of seed spice production, and the Breusch–Pagan Lagrange Multiplier and Hausman specification tests were used for model selection. The results revealed substantial inter-district variation in seed spice cultivation. Haridwar recorded the highest average production and productivity, whereas Uttarkashi had the largest area under coriander cultivation. Fenugreek showed higher average annual growth than coriander, with AGR values of 7.07%, 14.41%, and 7.65% for area, production, and productivity, respectively. CAGR analysis also indicated stronger long-term growth in fenugreek in several districts, particularly Pauri, Tehri, and Rudraprayag. Panel data diagnostics supported the random-effects model, which showed that cultivated area was the only significant determinant of seed spice production (β = 2.266, p < 0.001); study year and crop type were not statistically significant. The productivity model identified no significant effects of the explanatory variables, suggesting that yield variation may be influenced by climatic, technological, and management factors not included in the analysis. The findings emphasise the need for district-specific planning and productivity enhancement rather than reliance solely on expansion of cultivated area.