Weekly Tomato Price Dynamics in Tamil Nadu, India: An In-depth Analysis of Trends and Variations

Abstract

Price volatility often affects the livelihoods of small and marginal farmers, making accurate forecasting essential for informed decision-making regarding crop planting and market strategies. This study investigates the weekly price fluctuations of tomatoes in four major markets in Tamil Nadu: Coimbatore, Dindigul, Koyambedu and Madurai. Secondary data for the year 2022 was sourced from the Agmarknet website and analyzed using statistical methods including trend analysis, descriptive statistics and the Cuddy-Della Valle Index. The findings reveal that Coimbatore and Koyambedu markets experienced the highest mean prices, at 29.02 and 29.24 rupees per kilogram, respectively. Dindigul and Coimbatore markets also showed the highest standard deviations in prices, at 15.02 and 14.02 rupees per kilogram, indicating greater price variability. All markets exhibited positive skewness, with lepto kurtosis noted in Madurai. The study applied various models such as linear, exponential, logarithmic, and polynomial used to analyze price trends. Average weekly prices increased in Dindigul, Madurai, and Coimbatore markets during the 19th to 25th and 36th to 43rd weeks, while Koyambedu saw an increase from the 25th to 28th week. Prices generally declined with increased arrivals of tomatoes, and variability in both weekly prices was notably high across all studied markets. The study concludes that tomato prices in Tamil Nadu are highly dynamic and market-specific, with simple trend models proving inadequate, highlighting the need for advanced forecasting methods to improve price stability and market efficiency.