Export Performance and Trade Direction of Fresh and Dried Grapes (Raisin): Evidence from Afghanistan

Abstract

Grapes are one of the most delicious refreshing and nourishing fruits. Afghanistan produces 9.84 lakhtonnes of Grapes during 2018 (FAO statistics). It is one of the important commodities in the export basket of Afghanistan. The major export markets for Afghan’s fresh grapes are Pakistan and India. The major export markets for dried grapes (raisin) are India, Russia, Belarus, USA, Pakistan and UK. The present study aims to quantify the export performance and changing the structure of Grapes and raisin exports from Afghanistan. Secondary data on area, production and country-wise quantity exports of fresh and dried grapes were collected from FAO statistics, ITC and APEDA for a period of 13 years from 2006 to 2018. Compound Annual Growth Rate was computed for studying the trend in the area, production, yield, export quantity and export value for fresh and dried (raisin) grapes. Markov chain analysis was attempted to assess the direction of change in exports. Markov chain analysis results showed that Pakistan is the stable market for Afghan fresh Grapes and India and France are less stable markets. The major reasons are a geographical advantage for Pakistan which gave a competitive advantage over other countries concerning fresh grapes. India, Russia and Pakistan are stable markets for dried grapes and USA, UK, Germany and Belarus are less stable markets. India is the main country to import dried grapes (raisin) in the next five years. It shows a high value in terms of quantity and percentage which is more than 50 percent of all Afghanistan's dried grapes (raisin) export.