Climatic Determinants of Shrimp Yields in Tamil Nadu, India: A Transfer Function Analysis

Abstract

Shrimp aquaculture in Tamil Nadu plays a critical role in supporting livelihoods and contributing to exports but is increasingly vulnerable to climatic variability. This study investigates how seasonal precipitation, extreme temperatures, and lagged production impact shrimp yields in four key districts—Tiruvallur, Cuddalore, Thanjavur, and Nagapattinam—over the period 2015–2023. Using statistical models, we identify major trends and district-specific sensitivities. For instance, excessive summer and winter precipitation coupled with high maximum temperatures reduced yields in Tiruvallur, whereas warmer summer nights boosted production. In Cuddalore, yields were hampered by seasonal precipitation, elevated minimum temperatures, and the lingering effects of previous yields. Thanjavur’s production suffered from extreme temperatures and winter rainfall but benefited from milder winter nights. Nagapattinam showed unique dynamics, where winter precipitation and summer maximum temperatures enhanced yields, while summer rainfall and lagged production had adverse effects. These findings highlight the need for tailored, district-specific strategies to manage climate risks and sustain shrimp farming. For example, adaptive measures such as optimizing water management or selecting climate-resilient shrimp varieties could mitigate negative impacts. Future research could integrate factors like water quality and disease outbreaks to strengthen the sector’s resilience further.