Long-Term Rainfall Data Analysis for Contingency Crop Planning for Indore Region of Madhya Pradesh

Abstract

In order to weatherproof the region and prepare befitting contingent crop planning, the rainfall patterns, magnitudes, probabilities of Indore region of Malwa plateau of Madhya Pradesh were assessed systematically. The study revealed that probability of receiving annual rainfall of 663.9, 799, 969, 1163 and 1357 mm was computed to be 90, 75, 50, 25 and 10% respectively in the region. The numbers of rainy days revealed a decreasing trend with time. The probability of occurrence of weekly rainfall of 0-9; 0-22; 1.1 – 51.7; 1.6-101.7 and 2.0- 175.9 mm was estimated to be 90, 75, 50, 25 and 10 percent, respectively. The initial and conditional probabilities of rainfall (Markov chain probability) of this region of Malwa plateau, for the 8 decades i.e. from 1930 to 2010 with a limit of 25 mm have been worked out. The gamma distribution function was found to be the best fit function for 2, 3 and 5 days’ consecutive rainfall. The maximum rainfall for 2, 3 and 5 days with a recurring period of one year was 167.3, 223.7 and 266.7 mm, respectively. Similarly, for 2 and 5 year recurring period the maximum rainfall was estimated to be 206.7, 241.5, 298.5; and 266.2, 312.6, 315.9 mm in 2, 3 and 5 days, respectively. Thus, long-term rainfall data analysis for the region would provide a useful information for necessary weatherproofing of agricultural crops and crop planning, in terms of selection of crops/cultivars, efficient water and nutrient management.