Trend and Instability Analysis of Area, Production, Productivity of Millets in India

Abstract

The research aims to explore the trends and stability in the production, area, and productivity of millets in India over a span of 54 years, from 1966-67 to 2019-20. The study uses secondary data from ICAR millet statistics, and applies various mathematical models using scatter plot technique in Excel, such as linear, polynomial, logarithmic, power, and exponential functions to analyze the trend and forecast. To estimate annual growth rates, dispersion, and instability, the study employs compound growth rates, coefficients of variation, and the Cuddy-Della Valle index. Results indicate an alarming decline in cultivation area and production, particularly in major millets like Sorghum and Finger millet (CAGR -2.51% and -1.84% for area; -1.44% and -0.49% for production respectively), attributed to over-cultivation of major crops (cereals, pulses, and cash crops). However, millet yield demonstrates resilience and positive growth trends. The stability indices reveal varying degrees of instability among millet categories, emphasizing the need for tailored interventions (ranging from 5.90 to 21.11). Forecasted trends for the next decade predict further declines in area and production but suggest a potential reversal in the increasing yield trend (sorghum yield is estimated to be decrease from 889.85 Kg/Ha to 872.9 Kg/Ha in 2030). The study underscores the nutritional significance of millets and their role in climate-resilient agriculture. The research indicates that there is a need for targeted measures to promote millet cultivation, such as the use of improved varieties, and creating awareness about their nutritional benefits, developing evidence-based agricultural policies. This is important in order to enhance the area and production under millets, and also to align with global sustainability goals.