Temporal Analysis of Maximum Temperature Trends across the Districts of Rajasthan

Abstract

Introduction: Climate change has emerged as one of the most significant challenges to agricultural sustainability and natural resource management, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions such as Rajasthan. Study Period: This study examined the spatial and temporal variability of maximum temperatures across the 33 districts of Rajasthan using 23 years of secondary meteorological data for 2001–2023. Methodology: Descriptive statistical measures (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis) and parametric cubic trend models were employed to analyse temperature behaviour. The cubic model was fitted based on the coefficient of determination (R²), and model significance was tested using the F-value. Findings: The results revealed substantial spatial variation in maximum temperature among the districts. The mean maximum temperature ranged from 35.53°C in Rajsamand to 47.08°C in Hanumangarh, with relatively high values observed in Ajmer (44.91°C), Ganganagar (38.73°C), Jhalawar (38.64°C), Jalore (38.42°C) and Jodhpur (38.29°C). Hanumangarh recorded the highest observed maximum temperature (48.69°C), whereas Ajmer showed the greatest variability (SD = 1.313), indicating pronounced fluctuations during the study period. In contrast, Jhalawar exhibited the lowest variability (SD = 0.464). The cubic model consistently provided the best representation of maximum-temperature trends, with the highest explanatory power observed in Udaipur (R² = 0.473), followed by Rajsamand (0.456), Dungarpur (0.444), Pratapgarh (0.441) and Tonk (0.434). Several districts, including Udaipur, Rajsamand, Bharatpur, Banswara and Sirohi, exhibited statistically significant model fits (p < 0.05), indicating pronounced nonlinear temperature dynamics. Conclusion: The study highlights considerable inter-district climatic heterogeneity and emphasises the need for district-specific climate-adaptation strategies, heat-stress management, efficient irrigation planning and climate-resilient agricultural policies to enhance the sustainability of Rajasthan's agricultural systems.