Spatiotemporal Patterns of COVID-19 in the Makkah Region, Saudi Arabia: A GIS-Based Analysis with a Focus on Jeddah

Abstract

This study examines the spatial and temporal patterns of COVID-19 in the Makkah Al-Mukarramah Region of Saudi Arabia, with particular emphasis on Jeddah. The regional analysis covers 17 administrative units during the period from 2 March to 11 May 2020, comparing confirmed cases and incidence rates with population characteristics and population density. Global and Local Moran's I statistics were employed to assess spatial autocorrelation and identify local spatial associations. The temporal analysis of Jeddah covers 11 March 2020 to 4 May 2023. During this period, 96,003 confirmed cases, 1,600 deaths and 93,902 recoveries were recorded, with the highest daily count of 1,122 cases occurring on 9 January 2022. The regional findings reveal considerable geographical variation, with Makkah and Jeddah recording the highest absolute numbers of cases. However, the geographical distribution of incidence rates differed from that of confirmed cases. Global Moran's I indicated no statistically significant spatial autocorrelation (I = 0.030; p = 0.488), whereas local analysis identified two Low–High spatial outliers in Al Jumum and Bahrah. Population-based regression models showed limited explanatory relationships, with coefficients of determination of 0.18 for the linear model and 0.35 for the second-order polynomial model. These findings demonstrate substantial spatial and temporal variation in reported COVID-19 patterns, suggesting that population characteristics and geographical proximity alone are insufficient to account for the observed differences.