Spatial Modelling of Fever Prevalence and Suspected Malaria Cases among Children: A Cross-sectional Study

Abstract

Background: Disease morbidity, mortality and speed of spread vary substantially spatially. These have important implications for effective planning and targeting intervention strategies. The purpose of this study was to model the spatial dependence of fever prevalence and suspected malaria cases among children in Ethiopia. Methods: Data were obtained from 2011 EDHS collected for 144 districts at SNNP and Oromia Regional States. Explanatory spatial data analysis and spatial lag and error models were applied. Results: The results showed that the spatial lag model better fitted to the data. Prevalence rate of each of the events in a district was shown to be affected by that of its neighbors status. It was revealed that altitude, access to piped water, proportion of children under five, vaccination coverage, child wasting core, proportion of children born below average size and toilet availability were significant risk factors of fever rate. Moreover, altitude, proportion of children born below average, vaccination overage, stunting score, wasting score, proportion of children under five, mother education, and access to mass media were found to have significant effects on the rate of suspected malaria cases. Conclusion: There is spatial dependency for both variables -childhood fever prevalence and suspected malaria cases. The hot spot areas are at the center of each region. Several risk factors need attention. Interventions to mitigate occurrence of malaria infection among children would take in to account the nature of spatial variability and the identified risk factors.