Seasonal Patterns in Cumin Arrivals and Prices in Indian Markets: A Post-COVID 19 Analysis

Abstract

Cumin known as jeera in India, holds significant economic and cultural importance in the country's spice industry. My research paper explores the seasonal dynamics of cumin arrivals and prices in selected Indian markets, considering the profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Utilizing data from the Agmarknet portal spanning from January, 2006 to December, 2021, this study employs rigorous statistical techniques to analyze the patterns. The study reveals distinctive characteristics in cumin arrivals and prices across different markets. Notably, markets like Unjha, Jamnagar, Gondal, Merta City and Mumbai witnessed significant seasonal price fluctuations in August (102.40), January (103.23), July (105.37), August (104.49) and October (108.17) respectively. Mumbai, characterized by stable supply and demand, exhibited moderate price variation (CV = 17.81%), whereas Mandore experienced substantial fluctuations (CV = 43.55%) due to seasonal factors exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This research provides invaluable insights into the altered seasonal patterns of cumin arrivals and prices following the pandemic, offering vital information for farmers, traders and policymakers. Informed decisions about cumin production, marketing and pricing can be made, aligning with the dynamic post-COVID-19 landscape of the spice market in India.