Growth Performance and Interrupted Time Series Approach to Estimate Immediate and Sustained Effects of Oilseeds Mission on Groundnut in India

Abstract

Oilseeds are mostly grown in marginal lands with inadequate irrigation facilities (only 10% is irrigated) as a result yields tend to be low leading to a widening gap between domestic production of vegetable oil and demand. Production growth in the early eighties was slow due to insufficient technologies and the turning point was the year 1985-86. Since then, oilseeds production in the country has increased due to implementation of technology mission. The present study was attempted to examine the growth performance of groundnut in the major states of India and assess the immediate and sustained effects of oilseeds mission on groundnut production in order to identify the potentials for future expansion of area and scaling -up the yield of groundnut-based production system. Growth and quasi experimental time series analyses were employed to assess the growth performance and intervention’s effects (oilseeds mission) using time series data. Increase in groundnut production has been contributed mainly by increase in productivity. Though the maximum productivity growth was 6.24% per annum in India, overall growth rate in yield was 2.28 % per annum due to yearly aberrations indicating the high instability.  Groundnut yield grew by 3.84, 3.06 and 2.16 % per annum respectively in Rajasthan, Madya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu for the overall period (1992-93 and 2020-21). However, these states witnessed production shortfalls and production fell by 0.94, 6.42 and 2.05 % per annum, respectively. Except Gujarat the other major states also exhibited negative growth in production and the rate of drop was higher in the Uttara Pradesh (7.91%) followed by Madhya Pradesh (6.42%), Maharashtra (4.94%), Andhra Pradesh (3.69%) and Karnataka (3.03%).  Groundnut production in India also fell by 2.13 % per annum mainly due to fall in area and marginal growth in yield. The estimated yield increase was 450 kg/ha in India, which is higher by 48 % after the intervention.   The estimated positive and significant coefficient of interrupted time series for India (50.36) reveal that the oilseeds mission has created sustained effects as a result there was a yield improvement. Sustained effects of intervention are noticed in most of the states. Sustaining the productivity in those states with high yield potential and improving the productivity in other major states by prioritizing and disseminating the seeds of suitable varieties and production technologies are vital as there is lackluster response from the farmers in adoption of varieties and technologies.