Predictive Models for Pigeonpea in Northern Hills of Chhattisgarh, India

Abstract

The study is very necessary not only for understanding the growth trends and magnitude of fluctuations in crop production but are also useful for scientific planning and effective implementation of agricultural developmental at different levels. The necessary secondary data were collected for a period of 34 years from 1979-80 to 2012-13, which divided into three groups i.e. Period-I (1979-80 to 1986-87), Period-II (1987-88 to 1997-98) and Period-III (1998-99 to 2012-13). Three models linear, quadratic and exponential have been used for the study of trend analysis of the Pigeonpea for the three districts (Sarguja, Koriya and Jashpur) of Northern Hills of Chhattisgarh in India. Compound Growth Rate (%), Coefficient of Variation (%) and Instability Index have been calculated for the respective periods and all three models. Growth rates showed a significant positive growth in area under Jashpur and Koriya while Sarguja showed non-significant negative growth. Similarly, the production of pigeonpea showed a significant positive growth for Sarguja and Jashpur whereas Koriya registered insignificant positive growth. The productivity of this crop recorded negative non-significant growth in the case of Sarguja and Jashpur while Koriya recorded positive significant growth. Study showed moderate variability in area, production and productivity. The instability indices for the area, production and productivity for pigeonpea crop were positive and less and thereby indicating medium risk for growing this crop in coming days.