Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Cultivated Area, Production and Productivity of Millets in North East India and Future Projection Using ARIMA Approach

Abstract

Millets are an important but often overlooked group of cereal grains in global agriculture, with significant nutritional and agronomic value. India stands out as a millet cultivation leader, contributing significantly to global production and boasting a robust market poised for expansion. Millets are increasingly being recognized for their climate resilience and sustainable farming characteristics, in contrast to the productivity challenges that major staples such as wheat and rice face under changing climatic conditions. This study focuses on North East India (NEI), where millet cultivation is important for agricultural diversification and sustainability. Employing Man-Kendall test, the study examines historical trends in millet cultivated area, production, and productivity from 2000-2001 to 2022-2023, and then forecasting millet cultivated area and production using ARIMA models. The best fitted ARIMA model was found to be ARIMA (0, 0, 1) for millet cultivated area and ARIMA (2, 0, 1) (2, 0, 2) (2) for millet production. The models highlighted anticipated growth in millet cultivation and production by the year 2025-26, underscoring the potential for strategic agricultural planning and policy interventions. The study emphasizes the need for enhanced crop diversification, particularly in regions like Sikkim and Tripura which showed stagnant growth during the past decades, require enhanced crop diversification to optimize land use and enhance farming resilience against economic and environmental uncertainties. Moreover, this research aims to inform policymakers, agricultural stakeholders, and researchers about the spatial and temporal dynamics of millet cultivation in NEI, promoting sustainable agricultural practices and nutritional security in the face of global food security challenges.