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Research Article Open access CC BY 4.0

Mathematical Modelling of Effects of Non-Clinical Strategies in Combating Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Kenya

Akwalu Ezra Kimathi, Grace Gakii Muthuri, Cyrus Gitonga Ngari

Journal of Advances in Mathematics and Computer Science · pp. 143–167 · Published 9 Jul 2023

10.9734/jamcs/2023/v38i81797

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 is a serious problem in Kenya today. It has put an unprecedented burden on worldwide economy and public health. The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been driven predominantly by aerosol transmissions. The objectives of this study were to formulate mathematical models on the spread of SARS –CoV-2 and incorporating the effects of nonclinical strategies like screening, facemask usage, hand washing and social distancing, determine well posedness of the model, validate the developed model and finally predict the effects of nonclinical strategies on the dynamics of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Kenya. The mathematical model was based on SIRS epidemiological classical model. In developing the model, the population was divided into six human compartments; susceptible, exposed, infected, isolated in hospital, at home and recovered. The basic reproduction number was determined using next generation method. The model was analyzed through the determination of the model steady states. The stabilities of steady states analyzed based on reproduction number (R0) using: signs of Jacobi matrix evaluated at steady state, Lyapnov criteria, centre manifold theorem, Metzler matrix and Routh-Hurwitz.  Numerical simulations were carried out using MATLAB inbuilt ode solver based on Runge Kutta method. Sensitivity analysis of the model parameters was carried out using partial differentiation of the reproduction number and also using normalized sensitivity analysis. From this analysis, findings showed that adherence to the containment measures and contact tracing had the greatest negative impact on the reproduction number. It was found through simulation that adherence to the SARS-CoV-2 containment measures by the population would reduce the reproduction number to below 1 hence containing the pandemic. The findings of this study show the extent to which the nonclinical can be used to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2in Kenya. We recommended strict adherence to containment

COVID-19 modeling non- clinical simulation matlab

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