Long Term Trends and Current Status of Major Food Grains in Andhra Pradesh, India

Abstract

Cereals like rice and wheat have always shown stable trends to a certain extent because of the guaranteed procurement, widespread use of improved varieties, and permanent investments in irrigation and input delivery systems. As opposed to this, coarse cereals and minor millets are less stable and have more interannual variability because they are primarily grown in rainfed areas that are prone to risks. The present study was conducted to fill this gap by presenting a combined view of trends and variability of the ten major crops. Data for the study were obtained via the Indiastat portal from the year 1975 to the year 2023. The research applies both descriptive and statistical procedures and time series analytical approaches. In order to evaluate the instability in crop results, the coefficient of variation was used alongside the Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI), a variant of the CV that rectifies the trend in the time-series data. Rice continues to be the leading crop of the state, and in 2023-24, it was grown in 19.7 lakh hectares, which was the largest and that accounted for 34.45 percent of the total cropped area in Andhra Pradesh. Among the ANGRAU-developed rice varieties BPT5204 and MTU7029 alone account for 2.66 million and 1.91 million hectares of land in India, respectively, giving rise to a significant economic return. Among all the crops, oilseeds are the most important in Andhra Pradesh's agriculture. In the case of pulses, Bengal gram comes out on the top as the crop with the highest average production of approximately 6,444 tons and positive skewness, which indicates the existence of some high-yield areas or periods. The highest CAGR is observed in wheat among cereals (3.252%, p < 0.001), and it is followed by bajra (2.640%, p < 0.001) and rice (2.601%, p < 0.001). The analysis of stability through using CV, R², and CDVI reveals that staple cereals are of very high stability, while pulses are somewhat unstable, and oilseeds, especially castor, are of very high variability. These results stress the importance of the need for precise measures to be taken in order to improve the stability and productivity of pulses and oilseeds through better agronomic practices, irrigation, risk management, and varietal adoption.