Causes of Differentiated Household Vulnerability to Climate Variability in Korogocho and Soweto Slums

Abstract

Household vulnerability to climate variability in urban slums is driven by interconnected socioeconomic, environmental, and institutional inequalities that heighten risk and limit adaptive capacity, particularly among low-income populations. This study examined differentiated household vulnerability to climate variability in Korogocho and Kahawa Soweto informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya, where households experienced varying levels of risk despite similar environmental exposure. Vulnerability was conceptualized as a function of socioeconomic inequalities, environmental conditions, and adaptive capacity, with emphasis on poverty, access to resources, and social marginalization. A descriptive mixed-methods design was adopted, combining household surveys (n = 200), key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and participatory observations. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and correlation analysis, while qualitative data were examined through thematic analysis to triangulate findings.Results showed that geographical location (76%), socioeconomic status (72%), and access to resources (68%) were the leading determinants of vulnerability. Education (80%) and family background (77%) significantly influenced adaptive capacity. Correlation analysis revealed weak but statistically significant relationships between vulnerability and access to resources (r = 0.213, p < 0.05), and weak negative associations with economic condition (r = –0.06, p < 0.05) and age (r = –0.04, p < 0.05). Climate variables showed weak, non-significant relationships with income-generating activities (precipitation: r = 0.064; temperature: r = 0.055). Social capital enhanced resilience, although trust was negatively correlated with resource access (r = –0.156, p < 0.05). Gender showed a weak but statistically significant relationship with health conditions (r = 0.182, p < 0.01). Additionally, 60% of households reported low preparedness for climate shocks, indicating substantial vulnerability within the population. The findings indicate that household vulnerability is shaped by the interaction of socioeconomic disparities, environmental exposure, and adaptive capacity. Strengthening social capital, improving access to resources, and implementing targeted, context-specific adaptation strategies are essential to enhance resilience and reduce inequality in informal settlements.