Predicting Natural Gas Production in Various Nations Using a Fractional Grey Bernoulli Approach

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of natural gas production is crucial for economic stability, environmental sustainability, and market investment. This study presents an advanced forecasting method using the fractional grey Bernoulli model, which combines fractional accumulation and Bernoulli processes to enhance the predictive accuracy for nonlinear datasets. The model’s versatility and flexibility allow it to adapt to various data characteristics and complexities, thereby outperforming traditional grey models in forecasting performance. To optimize the model parameters, this study employs the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, further improving the model’s effectiveness. Empirical analysis of natural gas production data from Brazil, Italy, and Qatar demonstrates that the model exhibits significant advantages in both fitting and forecasting capabilities. The findings indicate that the fractional grey Bernoulli model achieves high accuracy and reliability in predicting natural gas production in these countries, providing a robust framework for strategic energy planning and investment decision-making. With average forecast errors of 1.9113%, 4.0353%, and 1.8902% for natural gas production in Brazil, Italy, and Qatar respectively, this study underscores the model’s effectiveness in enhancing forecast reliability and minimizing risk, providing valuable insights for sustainable energy development.