Prophecy of Stock Price of Bharat Immunological & Biological Corporation Ltd using Hybrid ANN and PSO Model

Abstract

The prediction of the time series has always attracted much interest from investors and researchers to evaluate financial risk. Stock market movements are extremely complex and are influenced by different factors. Hence it is very important to find the most important factors for the stock market. But the high level of noise and complexity of the financial data makes this job very difficult. Many authors have already used artificial neural network for this kind of forecasting tasks, but hybridization model of artificial neural network is considered to be widely used and better performing forecasting model among others. The dormant high noises data mess up the performance, so to enhance the prediction accuracy. We considered a set of seven technical attribute of stock market to perform the hybrid model of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization algorithms. The efficiency of the proposed method is measured by the stock price of Bharat Immunological & Biological Corporation Ltd with 3945 number of daily transactional data. Empirical prediction analysis shows that the proposed model enhances the performance in comparison to simple ANN model.