Impact of Climate Change on Banana Production in Thiruvananthapuram District of Kerala, India

Abstract

Global climate change has considerable implications in indian agriculture and hence food security and farmers livelihood. As a result there will be a threatened in food security. In this context, a study on “Impact of climate change on banana production in Thiruvananthapuram district of Kerala, India” was undertaken. The objective of the study was to quantify the impact of climate change on yield of banana in Thiruvananthapuram district of Kerala, India. The impact of climate change on banana production was quantified by using multiple linear regression model for Thiruvananthapuram district. Quarterly data on climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed for a period of 31 years from 1991 to 2021 were taken as independent variables and that of production of banana from Thiruvananthapuram was taken as the dependent variable. To determine the growth trend and variability, CAGR and coefficient of variation were calculated for the area, production, productivity, and climatic variables. It showed that Q4 (October to December) temperature was positively influencing and significant at 1 per cent level of significance. This means that one per cent increase in temperature during Q4 will increase the production by 13.9 per cent and one per cent increase in rainfall during Q4 will increase the production of banana by 0.42 per cent due to optimum temperature and rainfall. Positive trend in the growth of area (5.35 per cent per annum) and production (2.86 per cent per annum) were observed in spite of having a negative trend in productivity (-2.36 per cent per annum). The impact of climate change has positive effect on banana production in Thiruvananthapuram district. Increase in Q4 temperature resulted in increased production of banana in the district.