Growth, Instability and Structural Break in Millet Cultivation in Telangana, India

Abstract

The study analysed the trends, growth, and instability of millet cultivation in Telangana from 2008–09 to 2023–24. Time-series analyses included CAGR, Coefficient of Variation, Cuddy Della Valle Index, polynomial trend fitting, and Bai–Perron multiple structural break test. The results showed a significant decline in the area under major millets; sorghum, pearl millet, and finger millet, while improvements in yield, especially after 2017–18, contributed to a production recovery. Sorghum is the major millet crop, covering nearly 95 percent of total millet area and output, whereas minor millets exhibited highly erratic cultivation but showed positive growth in production. Instability in area and production was medium to high, with minor millets being the most unstable. Structural break analysis using modified Bai-Perron test, identified shifts around 2013–14 and 2018–19, which were associated with Telangana’s formation and renewed policy emphasis on millet promotion. The study highlighted that millet trends were largely influenced by policy and institutional factors rather than natural growth trajectories. Strengthening economic incentives, assured markets, irrigation support, and value chains was identified as essential to stabilize area and production, ensuring sustainable expansion, improved food security, and enhanced farm incomes.