From Conflict to Caution: Understanding How Geopolitical Crises Reshape Travel Behaviour

Abstract

Aims: The investigation into how the disruptions caused by war, terror warnings, and diplomatic sanctions affect international travel behavior. In this, perceived travel risk was entered as a mediating variable, and adaptive information-seeking behavior viewed as a moderating variable. Study Design: A quantitative research design was implemented via a cross-sectional survey design. Place and Duration of Study: The data were collected between January and April 2025 from international leisure travelers using online panels and travel communities. Methodology: The questionnaire was structured and administered to 400 international travelers. Descriptive statistics and tests for reliability and validity were performed; meanwhile, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was applied for testing the hypothesized relationships and to explore relationships among filtering variables of geopolitical disruption, perceived risk, adaptive behavior, and travel intention. Results: Geopolitical cues largely raised perceived travel risk, and travel intention suffered as a result. But on the flipped side, travelers who practiced adaptive information-seeking behavior (e.g., consulting embassy advisories or risk maps) saw this negative effect very much diminished. Conclusion: In fact, geopolitical disruptions interfere with the travel decision process beyond mere threats posed through perception; on the flip side, adaptive behaviors gear travelers through those threats. Thus, the study furthers the Risk Perception Theory while at the same time providing tourism authorities and crisis communicators with resources for fostering resilience-based approaches towards managing geopolitical risk in world tourism.