Forecast the Future Trends in Tapioca Cultivation in India Using ARIMA Time Series Models

Abstract

The present study aimed to analyse the historical trends and forecast the future performance of tapioca (Manihot esculenta Crantz) cultivation in India with respect to area, production, productivity, and exports. Annual secondary data for the period 2003–04 to 2022–23 were collected from the IndiaStat database (based on the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare) for area, production, and productivity, while export data were obtained from the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) database. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast future trends for the period 2024–2028. The results indicate that the area under tapioca cultivation is expected to remain stable at approximately 159 thousand hectares throughout the forecast period. Production is projected to remain relatively stable, ranging from 5.37 to 6.03 million tonnes, while productivity is expected to stabilise at around 32.51 t ha⁻¹. Similarly, tapioca exports are projected to remain stable at approximately 12.27 million kg during the forecast period. Overall, the forecasts suggest that future growth of the tapioca sector in India is likely to depend primarily on productivity enhancement, technological innovation, value addition, and improved export competitiveness rather than expansion of cultivated area. The findings provide useful insights for policymakers, researchers, and agribusiness stakeholders in formulating strategies for the sustainable development of the tapioca sector.