Climate Change Trends and their Impact on Cropping Pattern in Cold Desert of India

Abstract

Climate change is altering temperature, precipitation, and biodiversity, impacting water resources, food security, and livelihoods. India’s agriculture, especially in the Himalayan cold arid region of Leh and Kargil, faces short growing seasons, scarce water, and extreme conditions, forcing farmers to adapt to changing climate patterns. This investigation examines the impact of climate change on agricultural output within Leh, Ladakh, an area characterized by its frigid, arid plateau environment in northern India. Climate data were processed using CLIMPACT2 software, utilizing temperature and precipitation records from 1970 to 2022 obtained from the India Meteorological Department and local observation points. To evaluate climate trends, the investigators utilized nonparametric Mann-Kendall tests, including the Modified Mann-Kendall test, and Sen's slope estimator, to examine eleven separate climate indices. The authors found statistically significant increases in temperature, with minimum temperatures increasing more than maximum temperatures (+0.0169 °C/yr vs. +0.0162 °C/yr), decreasing frost days (on average, -0.457 days/yr), and increased GDD (>3.19 GDD units), which has increased the length of the frost-free period. Despite higher heat accumulation, growing season length (GSL) showed no significant increase, largely due to delayed snowmelt. Crop-area data (2001–2020) from the Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council (LAHDC) revealed declines in traditional barley and wheat cultivation but a 25–30 % expansion in high-value fruits and vegetables. Strong correlations (p < 0.01) were observed between accumulated heat (r = 0.82) and frost-free days (r = -0.78) and crop diversification. Focus-group interviews with farmers confirmed greenhouse production as a key adaptation strategy.