Climate Change and Plantation Crops: A Critical Narrative Review of Physiological, Spatial, Biotic and Adaptive Responses

Abstract

Plantation crops such as coffee, cocoa, tea, oil palm, natural rubber, banana, coconut and sugarcane underpin the rural economies of much of the tropical and subtropical world, yet their long production cycles and comparatively narrow climatic tolerances make them acutely exposed to a changing climate. This review synthesises and critically evaluates evidence on how rising temperature, altered rainfall, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and shifting biotic pressures are affecting these crops, and asks whether the literature supports a coherent account of vulnerability and adaptive capacity across such a heterogeneous group of species. Evidence was drawn from open-access and publisher-indexed peer-reviewed journals, institutional sources, and citation searching of recent reviews. Three broad conclusions emerge. First, thermal and hydrological stress already constrain yield and quality in several crops, with effects that are frequently non-linear around genotype-specific optima rather than simple linear declines. Second, elevated carbon dioxide confers a measurable but contested physiological benefit that interacts with, and in some cases partially offsets, warming and drought stress; the magnitude of this offset varies sharply between short-duration controlled experiments and field-scale, water-limited conditions, and carries consequences for crop quality that are distinct from its effects on biomass. Third, species distribution and process-based models converge on a general poleward and upslope redistribution of both crops and their associated pests and pathogens, although the two modelling traditions disagree substantially on magnitude and, in the case of cocoa, on the direction of projected change once carbon dioxide fertilisation and land-use constraints are incorporated. Agroforestry and shade management emerge as the most consistently supported agronomic adaptation strategy, buffering microclimatic extremes, although the net effect on resilience is contingent on soil water availability and on the forward-looking climatic suitability of the shade species selected. The evidence base is markedly uneven across crops, with coffee and cocoa disproportionately represented relative to rubber, coconut, tea, oil palm, banana and sugarcane. The review identifies priority needs for longitudinal, multi-decadal field trials that combine elevated carbon dioxide with realistic water limitation, for process-based models capable of separating suitability from harvestable yield, and for expanded physiological research on the least-studied plantation crops.