Assessment of Growth and Instability in Chilli Production and Export Trade in India

Abstract

India is a leading participant in the global chilli trade, with a substantial role in production, consumption and exports. The present study assessed India's position in the global chilli market by examining production trends, export performance, instability and export competitiveness over the period 2005-06 to 2024-25. The period was divided into two sub-periods, 2005-06 to 2014-15 and 2015-16 to 2024-25, to compare  changes across two decades. Secondary data on area, production, export quantity and export value were analysed using the exponential growth model, the Cuddy-Della Valle instability index, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA). The findings showed that India accounted for about 33.86 per cent of global chilli exports, making it the largest exporter in the world. During the overall period, chilli production increased significantly at 4.67 per cent per annum, while export quantity and export value increased at 8.85 per cent and 17.67 per cent per annum, respectively. The area under chilli cultivation recorded non-significant growth, indicating that production growth was mainly associated with productivity improvement rather than area expansion. Instability was low for area (8.40 per cent) and export quantity (8.54 per cent), whereas export value showed relatively higher instability (18.55 per cent). China was the largest destination for Indian chilli exports, accounting for 46.01 per cent of total export quantity. RCA values ranged from 1.86 to 3.45, and RSCA values remained positive throughout the study period. The study indicates that Indian chilli exports have maintained competitiveness, although quality compliance, value addition and market diversification remain important for strengthening future export performance.