Adaptive Capacity of Resettled Flood-prone Communities to Recurring Floods in Tana River County, Kenya

Abstract

This study evaluated whether resettlement had strengthened the capacity of flood-prone communities in Tana River County, Kenya, to anticipate, withstand, respond to and recover from recurring flood events. A household-based approach was used to assess socioeconomic characteristics, adaptation strategies, perceived effectiveness, institutional support and factors influencing adaptive capacity among 185 valid respondents. Descriptive statistics, Pearson’s chi-square tests and binary logistic regression were used to analyse the data. Early evacuation was the most widely adopted adaptation strategy (85.4%), followed by relocation to safer ground (78.4%) and livestock relocation (74.1%), while construction of barriers was least common (37.3%). Early warning was perceived as the most effective adaptation measure (M = 4.32, SD = 0.71), followed by evacuation (M = 4.18, SD = 0.76), whereas institutional support received the lowest effectiveness rating (M = 3.41, SD = 1.08). Socioeconomic factors, including education, income and livelihood diversification, were significantly associated with adaptive capacity (p < 0.05). Logistic regression showed that early-warning access had the strongest influence on adaptive capacity (AOR = 2.58, 95% CI: 1.39–4.79, p = 0.003), followed by livelihood diversification, education, community participation, income, institutional support and previous flood experience. The study concludes that resettlement alone was insufficient to ensure high adaptive capacity and that resilience depended on complementary socioeconomic, institutional and community-level support. The study recommends strengthening early-warning systems, livelihood diversification, disaster-preparedness training, institutional coordination, community participation and post-resettlement infrastructure and social services to enhance long-term resilience to recurring floods.