Climate and Agriculture in Côte D'ivoire: Perception and Quantification of the Impact of Climate Change on Cocoa Production by 2050

Abstract

Cocoa contributes 7.5% of Côte d'Ivoire's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and is an important cash crop for the rural population in the country's forest areas. Cocoa, like the crops of West Africa, is deeply affected by the consequences of climate change. The objective of this research is to predict the impact of climate change on cocoa production in the main producing regions of Côte d'Ivoire and to analyze farmers' perceptions of climate change. The soil data were those of the World Harmonized Database version 1.2 of the FAO and allowed the spatio-temporal analysis of the useful reserve of water in the soil. The socio-economic data used integrated in the production forecasting model were taken from the report of the Census of Farmers and Farms 2015/2016. The temperature and precipitation series over the period 1981-2016 served as a climatic reference. The RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used for climate projections by 2050. The results showed a temperature increase of around +1°C to +1.5°C by 2050 ; and a decrease in rainfall over the entire Ivorian territory. According to the developed model, national cocoa production is expected to fall by around 17% and 23% respectively under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Moreover, some current cocoa production areas will become unsuitable (Lagunes and Sud-Comoe in Côte d'Ivoire) due to the new pedoclimatic conditions. The results obtained also highlighted a relatively low level of knowledge of cocoa producers regarding the effects of climate on well-being.