Multidimensional Crisis of the Intermunicipal System of Drinking Water and Sewerage Services (SIAPA) in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area: A Documentary Analysis of Water Security, Finance, Social Equity and Public Health

Abstract

The Intermunicipal System of Drinking Water and Sewerage Services (SIAPA) in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area (GMA) faces a multidimensional water-security challenge involving source availability and quality, infrastructure condition, operational efficiency, financial stress, unequal service impacts and public-health protection. This study undertook a structured documentary analysis of official information, regulatory standards, peer-reviewed literature and time-bounded public reporting, with the evidence updated to 29 August 2026, and developed qualitative policy scenarios for 2026–2035. Current CONAGUA data show negative average annual availability in five aquifers relevant to the metropolitan area, with a combined deficit of approximately 122.38 hm³/year. For Lake Chapala, published analysis of CONAGUA monitoring for 2012–2022 reported 26 of 35 sites in yellow or red categories. Public reporting on SIAPA's 2025 monitoring indicated that 278 of 1,180 monitored points (23.6%, publicly reported as 23%) were outside NOM-127-SSA1-2021 for at least one reported parameter; this is a surveillance signal, not an estimate of population exposure or disease incidence. Transparency-based reporting in August 2026 placed SIAPA's gross overdue portfolio at MXN 20.807 billion across 585,434 users, although recoverability requires account-level assessment. The synthesis identifies a reinforcing relationship among source stress, infrastructure deterioration, service failures, financial constraints and loss of trust. A recovery strategy is proposed around source protection, standardised water balances and loss reduction, asset renewal, treatment modernisation, financial restructuring, independent water-quality surveillance, water justice, reuse, energy efficiency and metropolitan governance. The proposed risk matrix, composite index and scenario trajectories are explicitly exploratory decision-support tools rather than validated forecasts.