Evaluating the Most Suitable Tree Species Using Land Expectation Value: A Case Study from Plantation in North of Iran

Abstract

Plantation in north of Iran is rapidly increasing by local farmers and state but it is not clear which species is most suitable for perpetual timber production. Thus, this study is carried out to evaluate the most suitable timber species among ash (Fraxinus excelsior), elm (Alnus glutinosa), maple (Acer velutinum), oak (Quercus castanifolia), bald cypress (Taxodium distichumin) in north of Iran for evaluation of most suitability using Land Expectation Value (LEV). Data such as wood price at forest road side and variable harvesting cost was collected from secondary souce especially General Office of Natural Resources in Guilan province for a period of 20 years. Average annual increment of different species derived from previous researches. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was used for deflation of stumpage price. Regression analysis was used to predict the stumpage price of different species. Then, the mean price process was determined for different species. Faustmann's formula was used to determine the LEV or Net Present Value (NPV) for a perpetual timber production of different species.  The results showed that the LEV of ash, elm, maple, oak and bald cypress were 2623.883, 4653.042, 4319.9644, 2206.8788, 8064.667 (0.33 US dollar/ m3), respectively. The LEV of bald cypress was the highest, so it can be concluded that this species is the most suitable for timber production.