Sensitivity Analysis of the Dynamical Transmission and Control of Lassa Fever Virus

Abstract

A non-linear deterministic model was considered to study the dynamics transmission and control of Lassa fever virus. The total population was divided into six mutually exclusive classes between human and rodents as susceptible human, infected human, treated human, removed human, susceptible rodents and infected rodents. Existence and uniqueness of the solution of the model were determined, the model threshold parameter was examined using next-generation operator method. The existence of disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point was carried out. The model result shows that diseases free equilibrium is local asymptotically stable at Ro< 1 and unstable at Ro> 1, the model is globally asymptotically stable. Sensitivity analysis of the model parameters was carried out in order to identify the most sensitive parameters on the disease transmission. The results indicate that, the most sensitive parameter is the progression rate to active Lassa fever (γ), the next is the force of infection the susceptible human with the infected individuals’ (λ). The least sensitive parameter is the treatment rate of infective class (θ). (γ) and (λ) are highly sensitive to the transmission of Lassa fever and every effort must be put in place by the agencies concern to check these parameters.