Understanding Climate-Driven Livestock Diversification: Evidence from Semi-Arid Regions of Rajasthan

Abstract

Climate variability and recurrent droughts have increasingly affected the rural livelihoods in the semi-arid regions of Rajasthan, where livestock remains a central pillar of household resilience. This study examines how farmers’ perceptions of climate change and long-term drought conditions influence livestock diversification in two drought-prone districts, Jaipur and Ajmer. A multistage sampling method was used to representing diverse agro-ecological and socioeconomic settings. Secondary data of 35 years (1990-2024) of gridded rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to construct a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12) and derive drought frequency, severity and duration for each district. Three key indices Climate Change Perception Index (CCPI), the Composite Drought Index (CDI) and the Livestock Species Diversification Index (LSDI) were developed to capture household perceptions related to climatic hazards, impacts and livelihood risks, integrated drought attributes to reflect long-term climatic stress. A multiple linear regression model was employed to identify the climatic and socioeconomic determinants of diversification. The findings show significant regional variations in the two districts' perceptions of the climate, drought intensity and diversification across the two districts. Households with higher perceived climate risks and greater exposure to drought have more diversified livestock portfolios as both CCPI and CDI which were found to be strong and significant predictors of livestock diversification. Dependency ratio and agricultural dependency were two socioeconomic factors that had a major impact on diversification. The results emphasize the relevance of climate-informed livestock development policies that increase resilience among vulnerable households and show how crucial climate-driven adaptation is in determining livestock strategies in semi-arid Rajasthan.