Trends in Production, Consumption and International Trade of Cereals for India

Abstract

This study examines trends in area, production, yield, consumption, and international trade of cereals in India from 1961 to 2019, focusing on major cereals like rice, wheat, maize, millets, barley, and sorghum. Using secondary data from the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, statistical tools such as log linear trend analysis, compound annual growth rate, and percentage analysis were applied. The results indicate that the harvested area for rice has significantly increased (P < 0.0001), while barley has declined. Production of rice, wheat, and maize has shown substantial positive growth (P < 0.0001), influenced by advancements in farming techniques and favorable policies. Despite declining cultivation of millets, barley, and sorghum, demand for healthier alternatives, particularly millets, is on the rise due to their nutritional value. Yield trends show consistent growth across all cereals, with wheat leading the increase. Consumption patterns reveal a significant rise in rice and wheat intake. India’s position as a major cereal exporter, particularly for rice, wheat, and maize, is vital for global food security. The findings offer valuable insights for researchers and policymakers to reassess crop priorities, promote underutilized cereals, and develop strategies for a more sustainable, inclusive, and nutrition-focused agricultural future. Also, it highlights the need for strategic interventions to sustain cereal production and ensure food security in India.