Trend Analysis and Forecast of Ghana’s Palm Oil Exports and Imports

Abstract

Aims: To analyze the trends in Ghana's palm oil exports and imports, and also forecast imports and exports of oil palm in Ghana. Study Design:  Quantitative Study. Place and Duration of Study: The Department of Mathematical Sciences at University of Mines and Technology, Ghana, between June 2024 and July 2024. Methodology: Secondary data on the annual imports and exports of oil palm in Ghana was sourced from IndexMundi from 1964 to 2023, a data portal that collects information and statistics from numerous sources and converts them into various graphical formats. The data was then reorganized and refined to enhance simplicity and clarity. Data gathering, regression analysis, and Vector autoregressive (VAR) are the techniques employed. Results: Key findings reveal a strong positive correlation (0.89354) between imports and exports, suggesting that fluctuations in one are closely linked to the other. The study also identifies both imports and exports exhibit volatility, with forecasts indicating increased variability in the future. This volatility is attributed to combination of factors including domestic production variability, global market trends, policy shifts, and climate-related impacts on palm oil. Conclusion: The study concludes that, there is the need to strengthen domestic palm oil production to reduce reliance on imports. Investments in local plantations, improved processing technology, and agricultural extension services are critical for palm oil industry in Ghana.