Trade Competitiveness and Market Dynamics of India’s Fresh Fruit Exports: An Analysis of Grapes, Bananas, and Oranges

Abstract

The study analyses the trade competitiveness and market dynamics of India’s fresh fruit exports - grapes (HS 080610), bananas (HS 080390), and oranges (HS 080510) - during the    period 2013–2024. Using quantitative time-series data from the International Trade Centre (ITC) Trade Map, the study employs the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), Markov Chain Analysis, and the Cuddy–Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI) to assess market concentration, destination loyalty, and export stability. Exports were analyzed across major importing regions, including Europe, South Asia, and the Gulf countries to evaluate competitiveness and diversification trends. Results indicated that grapes and bananas exhibited low and stable HHI values (0.14–0.21), signifying well-diversified markets, whereas oranges showed high concentration (0.56–0.89), reflecting limited market reach. The Markov Chain Analysis revealed strong market loyalty for grapes within the European Union and moderate transitions for bananas across Gulf countries. CDVI results indicated that grape exports were the most stable (14.53%), followed by bananas (39.30%) and oranges (57.19%). Overall, India’s grape exports emerged as the most competitive and stable, bananas showed moderate volatility with growing opportunities, while oranges remained geographically confined and unstable. The study underscores the need for strategic policy measures focused on market diversification, infrastructure development, and value addition to strengthen India’s position in the global fruit export market.