Temporal Analysis Using GIS and Remote Sensing for Adaptive Forest Resource Management: A Human-Tiger Conflict Case Study from Nagarahole Tiger Reserve

Abstract

Background: India supports ~70% of the world’s wild tigers, underscoring its conservation significance. Human-Tiger conflict, manifested through livestock depredation and retaliatory killings, is driven by habitat encroachment and inadequate livestock protection. Such conflicts impose severe economic costs on forest-adjacent communities and erode support for conservation. Aim: This study investigates the temporal patterns of human-tiger conflict in Nagarahole Tiger Reserve (NTR), India (2019–2023), focusing on allocation of forest department resources to reduce conflict with informed targeted mitigation strategies. Study Design:  Longitudinal Observational Study. Place and Duration of Study: NTR, Karnataka India; 5 years (2019–2023). Methodology: We analyzed 210 verified livestock predation incidents using Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping and conducted household surveys across 57 buffer-zone villages. Results: Geospatial analysis identified Anechowkur (40.95% of incidents) and Veeranahosalli (16.67%) as primary conflict epicentres, with secondary clustering in Hunsur (11.43%) collectively representing 69.05% of all livestock predation events. Temporal analysis revealed peak conflict in January–March (76 incidents) and September (34 incidents), with lowest rates during monsoon (June: 9 incidents). It was also observed that temporal data-guided forest staff/resource deployment in Anechowkur and Veeranahosalli yielded a reduction in livestock predation during high-risk months (January to March) in 2022 and 2023. Conclusion: Livestock predation is driven by proximity to reserve edges, seasonal prey scarcity, and inadequate protection. The northwestern sector requires urgent interventions due to perennial hotspot status. Mitigation must prioritize: (1) temporally-targeted patrols during high-risk months January–March/September and (2) subsidized predator-proof enclosures, which could reduce conflicts.