A Study on Rain Rate Prediction of Southwestern Nigeria

Abstract

Rainfall parameters can be utilized to investigate the effect of climate change through scientific methods. However, data on rainfall rate exceeded for a fraction of an average year is grossly unavailable over Nigeria’s climate, thereby diminishing the capability of existing models to adequately estimate the effect of degradation due to rain. Hence, more accurate estimation is required for better predictions. Rainfall volume data for six different locations in the south-western region of Nigeria were obtained for rain rate computation using Semire and Rosmiwati model. The curve-fitted Cumulative Distribution Functions were compared with the ITU-R rain rate model (Recommendation P.837-6) and compensation function was obtained using error analysis while the performance was evaluated with respect to existing models using Chi-square, and Percentage Error and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metrics. The outcome of this study can be adopted for better understanding of spatial rainfall intensity in this region and other climatic zones of similar rainfall characteristics.