Structure Analysis and Growth Trends the Economy of Bali Province-Indonesia Post COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The 2020-2021 world economic downturn due to the Covid-19 pandemic has reduced tourist visits to Bali. The G-20 conference in 2022, which be followed by foreign tourist visits to Bali, have a positive influence on Bali's economic growth. The research objectives are to Analyze Bali's economic structure post-COVID-19 pandemic and make a trend for Bali's economic growth post-COVID-19 pandemic. Research location in Bali Province. The type of data collected is quarterly secondary data for the 2018-2023 period (21 points) where Y=quarterly Bali economic growth, and X=quarterly foreign tourist visits. The main data source is the Bali Province Central Statistics Agency and several other related agencies in Bali. Data analysis methods are descriptive statistics, qualitative descriptive, and linear trend analysis. The research results show that, although in 2020-2021 Bali's economy experienced a significant contraction due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, post the pandemic, tourist visits to Bali began to recover in 2022-2023, Bali's economic structure remains the same as before the pandemic, which was dominated by the tourism sector. The results of the linear trend analysis show that tourist visits have a significant effect on Bali's economic growth. This means that the increase in tourist visits after the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on Bali's economic growth. If in the first quarter of 2024, tourist visits reach 1,500,000 people, then Bali's economic growth will be 6.59%. However, if in the second quarter of 2024, tourist visits reach 1,600,000 people, then Bali's economic growth will be 7.03%. The novelty of the research is that after COVID-19, Bali's economy continues to be driven by tourism, and tourist visits have a significant influence on Bali's economic growth.