Spatiotemporal Analysis of Rainfall Variability and Drought in Western Madhya Pradesh

Abstract

The present study investigates the rainfall variability and drought characteristics across 16 districts in the western part of Madhya Pradesh, India, using long-term rainfall records from 1980 to 2023. A combination of statistical techniques, including homogeneity testing (Pettitt’s test), randomness and autocorrelation testing (Durbin-Watson statistics), rainfall variability analysis, standardized rainfall anomaly (SRA) assessment, and rainfall departure and probability distribution analysis, was employed to evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and drought events. The results indicated that while most districts exhibited homogeneous and random rainfall patterns, a few stations demonstrated significant non-homogeneity and negative autocorrelation. Spatial variability analysis revealed that the Malwa Plateau region received relatively less rainfall and exhibited greater variability compared to the Nimar Valley and Jhabua Hills regions. The frequency and severity of droughts were found to be higher in the Malwa region, with drought return periods as short as two to three years, while the southern districts experienced fewer and less severe drought events. This study highlights the pressing need for region-specific drought mitigation strategies and better water resource management practices to enhance climate resilience in western Madhya Pradesh. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders involved in sustainable agricultural and water management planning.