Short-Term Health Effects of Fine Particulates from Dust Events in Al-Ahsa, Saudi Arabia: A Simulation-Based Analysis

Abstract

In the Eastern region of Saudi Arabia, dust events are common and pose serious threats to respiratory health. This study evaluated the short-term impacts on respiratory morbidity in Al-Ahsa, Saudi Arabia, of fine particles (PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀) during dust events. A simulation-based framework was used to assess hospital data from 2019 to 2022, by redistributing seasonal hospital visits into daily counts based on the intensity of dust events. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS-EAC4) provided the daily particulate concentrations, and negative binomial and distributed lag models (0–5 days) were used to assess the relationships between dust intensity, particulate matter, and respiratory visits. The findings indicated that while PM₁₀ showed modest but significant impacts (+8%), same-day increases in PM₂.₅ were strongly associated with higher respiratory visits (≈+16%, p < 0.001). Impacts that were delayed for more than a day were negligible, suggesting that morbidity maxima happen right after exposure. Urban and pediatric hospitals experienced the largest spikes during severe occurrences. Daily-level analysis better captures acute health impacts than seasonal models, which showed weaker or nonsignificant relationships. All things considered, the short-term pulmonary impacts of dust events in Al-Ahsa are primarily caused by fine particles, underscoring the significance of focused public health preparedness and integrated air-quality monitoring in Saudi Arabia.