Revealed Comparative Advantage and Market Retention Analysis of India’s Marine Product Exports

Abstract

Aims: To analyse the competitiveness and structural shifts in India's marine product exports over 2004-05 to 2023-24, addressing the gap in understanding long-run market transition patterns using RCA and Markov Chain techniques. Study Design: Quantitative analytical study based on secondary time-series data, employing RCA and Markov Chain models to assess export competitiveness and market transitions. Place and Duration of Study: India; covering a period of twenty years from 2004-05 to 2023-24. Methodology: The study uses RCA to evaluate comparative advantage across major marine product categories such as frozen shrimp, frozen fish, cuttle fish, squid, and other products. Markov Chain analysis is applied to examine the direction and stability of export markets, focusing on transition probabilities among major importing regions. Results: The RCA analysis indicates a strong and consistent comparative advantage in frozen shrimp exports throughout the study period (RCA ranging from 3.08 to 5.27), while other product categories show either temporary or persistent comparative disadvantage (RCA < 1). This reflects a structural dependence on shrimp in India’s marine export basket. Markov Chain results reveal varying degrees of market retention, with South East Asia (0.3306) and China (0.1221) emerging as relatively stable and increasingly significant markets. In contrast, traditional destinations such as the United States and the European Union exhibit more dynamic and shifting patterns. The long-term trends suggest gradual diversification of export destinations and stronger regional integration within Asian markets. Conclusion: The study highlights the need for diversification, value addition, infrastructure development, and targeted market strategies to sustain export competitiveness and reduce risks associated with product and market concentration. These findings suggest the need for diversification beyond shrimp, strengthening value addition in underperforming segments, and consolidating trade relations with emerging Asian markets.