Rainfall Variability in Gujarat (1990-2022): A Climatological Analysis of Trends, Extreme Events and Sectoral Implications

Abstract

This study analyzes rainfall variability in Gujarat from 1990 to 2022 to evaluate long-term climatological change, extreme precipitation events, and their socio-economic consequences. Using data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), the research employs statistical trend analysis, including the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator, to identify changes in spatio-temporal rainfall patterns. The findings indicate an increase in average annual rainfall, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions like Saurashtra and Kutch, while more humid regions in South Gujarat have experienced a decrease. Despite the overall increase in rainfall, the number of rainy days has declined, leading to fewer but more intense precipitation events. This has resulted in a simultaneous rise in the frequency of both floods and droughts, as well as "green drought" events. The study concludes that Gujarat's rainfall patterns have shifted toward greater intensity and unpredictability, posing significant challenges to water management, agriculture, and urban infrastructure. These findings highlight the urgent need for enhanced water storage systems, climate-resilient agricultural practices, and robust early warning systems to mitigate disaster risk and build resilience against a rapidly changing hydro-climatic environment.