The Impact of the Lockdown Measure on the Confirmed Cases of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria

Abstract

Aims: This study examined the impact of the lockdown measure on the confirmed cases of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria.  The objectives of the study include to identifying an appropriate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model that is adequate for estimating the reported cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria and to ascertain whether the ease of lockdown has a significant impact on the reported cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria.  Place and Duration of Study: The source of the data used for this study was the secondary data obtained from the daily report of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) from 1st February 2020 to 30th June 2020. Methodology: The statistical tools used for data analysis are the ARIMA time series model and the Chow test analysis. Results: Nigeria ranked 1st in West Africa sub-region with a total of 25, 133 confirmed COVID-19 cases, followed by Ghana with 17, 351 confirmed cases while Gambia recorded the least number of confirmed cases with 47 cases of COVID19. The ARIMA (0, 1, 1) was identified as the best model for forecasting the confirmed COVID-19 cases in Nigeria within the observed period. It was found that there exists a significant difference in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 during the lockdown period and the post lockdown period. Conclusion: The study revealed that Nigeria has the most confirmed cases of COVID-19 in West Africa region. Also, the ease of the lockdown was found to increase the number of confirmed virus cases in Nigeria.