An Empirical Analysis of Public Debt Sustainability in Kenya

Abstract

The study provides a focused analysis of Kenya’s determinants of debt sustainability owing to its consistent budget deficits and higher debt servicing costs. Unlike broader studies, this research focuses on Kenya's unique economic conditions and talks about the consequences of unchecked debt servicing payment failures in Kenya that could undo macroeconomic progress if unchecked. The study deploys a single equitation regression analysis followed by a series of robustness checks and a generalized method of moments (GMM) technique to analyze the link for Kenya, 1990-2023. The regression results show that debt in Kenya is not sustainable, with factors such as an increase in debt stock, high-interest rate costs, increase in budget deficits, inflation rate increase and high depreciation of the local currencies ultimately wiping out the repayment potential of Kenya. However, the results show that increased export revenue earnings and faster economic growth can improve budget resources for debt servicing. Our findings suggest that policymakers in Kenya should focus on fiscal consolidation by reducing non-interest expenditures and enhancing revenue collections.