Remittances and the National Household Disposable Income in Nigeria (1980-2025): Dynamic Forecasting Approach

Abstract

This paper uses a data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) from Nigeria and World Bank to analyze how the receipt of international remittances (from the rest of the world) affects the National Household Disposable-Income in Nigeria being one of the top 10 remittance-receiving countries in the world, with about 10,045 billion US$ in 2010. The study employs a dynamic forecast model to analyse the nature of this effect for both the short run (1980-2015) and long run (1980-2025). To ensure stationarity of the data, the study uses the individual root of Im, Pesaran and Shin unit root test. From the result, it is found that remittances have a significant effect on the national household disposable-income both in short and long run in Nigeria. These findings support the growing view that remittances can help increase the level of investment in human and physical capital in remittance-receiving countries. It was recommended that policies should be designed to ensure that remittances sent through the banks and other transfer institutions attract little or no interest.