Importance of Environmental Factors Influencing Dengue: A Strategic Approach in Managing Dengue Transmission in Outpatient Clinical Settings in Kerala, India

Abstract

Dengue fever is caused by the dengue virus, a Flaviviridae member, transmitted through Aedes Egypti mosquitos. Dengue virus causes dengue fever and can develop into dengue haemorrhagic fever and Dengue shock syndrome and can be fatal and life threatening. Kerala, a small state from the southern part of India is hyper endemic to all 4 serotypes of dengue virus (DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, DEN-4) posing a major concern to tackle with the limited resources available in the health care system in Kerala. Our study was conducted at an outpatient clinical setting in Kerala based on the reported dengue positive cases from the clinical laboratory during the period January 2023-December 2023 and correlated with the climate factors including rainfall, temperature and humidity obtained from relevant meteorological sources to know the influence of climate factors over dengue transmission. Our study revealed a strong positive correlation between rainfall and dengue cases (r = .722, p = .008) significant at 0.01 level, a moderate correlation between humidity and dengue cases was observed (r=.579, p=0.049) showing that an increase in humidity increases the number of dengue cases. A negative correlation observed between temperature and dengue cases (r = -.490, p = .106). However, the relationship is not statistically significant, suggesting temperature alone may not be impact in dengue transmission. A statistical regression model summary revealed that rainfall, temperature, and humidity collectively accounting approximately 60% of the variability in dengue cases (R Square: 0.598). The Adjusted R Square of 0.448 shows the model’s ability to generalize beyond the sample, while the Standard Error of the Estimate of 25.696 reflects the average deviation between predicted and actual dengue cases occurrences highlighting a strong relationship between the environmental factors and the incidence of dengue infection, suggesting that changes in weather can significantly influence dengue outbreaks.  The study will help in better understanding of the influence of environmental factors such temperature, rainfall and humidity on dengue transmission, helping to develop strategic plans, improving predictions of dengue outbreaks.