Exploring the Long-term Dynamics Between Economic Indicators and Suicide Rates in Bangladesh: An ARDL Approach

Abstract

This study examines the ongoing connection between economic variables and the suicide rate in Bangladesh using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Suicide rates continue to escalate in Bangladesh, and the present study seeks to examine the relationship between unemployment, inflation, GDP, and suicide rates over the long term. The study investigates the association between unemployment, inflation, GDP, and suicide rates from 2000 to 2021, utilizing time-series data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and the World Bank. The ARDL framework reveals significant short-term and long-term effects, suggesting to the policymakers that while unemployment, inflation, and GDP have an influence, they do not solely account for the causes of suicide. This study applies an ARDL (2,2,0,2) model to depicts the short- and long-run dynamics of the variables, with the resulting F-statistic of 9.5 indicating a strong and significant relationship between unemployment, inflation, GDP, and suicide rates. The Error Correction Model (ECM) indicates that approximately 51% of the fluctuations in the suicide rate are corrected in the following period. The present investigation offers important insights for decision-makers, emphasizing the need to address economic stressors to reduce suicide rates and subsequently enhance mental well-being in low- to middle-income nations such as Bangladesh.