Projection of Futuristic Climatic Scenario of Cuttack District of Odisha using CMIP5

Abstract

The Changing climatic scenario is found as the most challenging issue to be faced by the farmers in future for attaining sustainable farm income. This study aimed to explore the projected climate change for Cuttack district of East and South Eastern Coastal plain agro-climatic zone of Odisha using four global climate change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 for four future years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5) was employed using bilinear interpolation for downscaling to generate these climate projections with included weather parameters i.e temperature, rainfall and solar radiation for the study area. The model results revealed that the RCP projections of climate change showed an increase in seasonal maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation and a decrease in the rainfall condition in future for Cuttack district of Odisha for the years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090 and there will be an maximum increase in seasonal maximum temperature by 2.56 o C and by 3.96 o C in seasonal minimum temperature in the year 2090 under RCP 8.5 scenario. Hence through the findings of the present investigation it is found that there is a need for farmers of Cuttack district of Odisha to follow necessary adaptation strategies in future to avoid the major risk caused to the agriculture production potential under the changing scenario of climate.