Projection of Yield of Rice Crop over Prayagraj with Future Climatic Scenario

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change on productivity of rice cultivars Swarna sub-1, Sarjoo-52, Pant Dhan 4, and NDR-359 for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 for the Prayagraj district of Uttar Pradesh using the Marksim and DSSAT crop simulation model under four different climate change scenarios, namely RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. The model evaluation indicated good performance with both calibration (PE=2.43,6.26,4.31,3.79, RMSE= 132.79, 345.13, 237.44, 237.85, nRMSE = 2.53, 7.31, 4.46, 3.97) and validation (PE =3.58, 10.03, 4.28, 6.09, RMSE = 197.88, 456.35, 238.37, 366.52, nRMSE = 3.95, 10.55, 4.67, 6.39) for Swarna sub-1, Sarjoo-52, Pant Dhan 4 and NDR-359 cultivars respectively, which showed good agreement between anticipated and observed values. For the Prayagraj region, NDR-359 yields the most among the four varieties, followed by Pant Dhan 4, Swarna Sub-1, and Sarjoo-52. By examining the future climate data that MarkSim's weather generator downloaded, it was noticed that all other weather variables, such as solar radiation, average maximum and minimum temperature increases while rainfall decreases. The findings of the study reveal that, among all projection scenarios, the grain yield is greater for RCP 2.6 and lowest for RCP 8.5. Analysis of the expected climate scenario data with yield revealed that the yield was higher in 2030 and lower in 2050. Additionally, it was observed that again in 2090 the yield gets increased for RCP 2.6 & decreased for RCP 4.5,6.0 & 8.5. Among all the four cultivars the yield of Sarjoo-52 will be reduced for RCP 4.5,6.0 & 8.5 for the year of 2050,2070 & 2090.These findings may offer insightful information about possible climate change effects on rice yield and suitable adaptive strategies to minimize the negative effects of future climate change.