Price Dynamics of Tomato, Onion and Potato (TOP) in India

Abstract

The development of society depends on several core elements, including food, livelihood, nutritional security, and healthcare. To gain insight into the dynamics and volatility of prices of top crops, a study was conducted analysing wholesale monthly price data for selected states and all of India from January 2005 to December 2021. Various methodologies such as the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), seasonality index, Cuddy Della Valle Index, rescaled range analysis, and ARCH-GARCH model were utilized to achieve the research objectives. According to the study, West Bengal had major crop price fluctuations with tomatoes being costly from July to November, onions from August to January, and potatoes from July to December. Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Punjab experienced the highest monthly price instability for tomatoes, onions, and potatoes. Additionally, the prices of TOP crops were more unpredictable than cereals and pulses. The price series of potatoes had long-term memory detection, and onions had the highest price volatility among TOP crops. According to the study, in order to tackle the price variability of TOP crops, it is necessary to enhance price stabilization measures. By implementing integrated policies, a stable pricing system can be established for top crops, which will not only safeguard the interests of consumers but also ensure food and economic security for farmers.