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Research Article Open access CC BY 4.0

Prediction of Cases of Infection and Deaths Caused by COVID-19 in Mexico through the Construction of Probabilistic Models under Health Conditions in 2020

Juan Bacilio Guerrero Escamilla, Sócrates López Pérez, Yamile Rangel Martínez

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · pp. 9–21 · Published 27 Jan 2021

10.9734/ajpas/2020/v10i430252

Abstract

In the present research work, two probabilistic models are constructed, which are exponential regression and negative binomial regression. The first one refers to the number of positive cases of being infected by COVID-19. The second one refers to deaths. It was possible to estimate the dynamics of the phenomenon with both instruments, resulting in the presence of more than 106 thousand positive cases of COVID - 19, with an approximation of more than 9 thousand deaths, all of this, in approximately 4 months. In the first case, these were the results, which when updated with data issued by the federal government's health sector in November, changed the contagion scenarios and the estimates of deaths from covid-19.

COVID – 19 exponential regression negative binomial regression.

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